Моделирование формирования цен на земельные участки Московской области. Кадастровая оценка земель
П
риложение
1
79
П
риложение
2
80
Приложение 3
81
Приложение 4
Оценивание мультипликативной модели МРА, учитывающей влияние фактора принадлежности к оценочной зоне, для всех направлений.
Белорусское направление
Ln(PRICE) = -0.0057827652*EL + 0.13916627*WAT + 0.36901874*GAS + 0.2087365*WC - 0.060767054*TEL + 0.052102827*ROAD - 0.075337328*FOREST - 0.0055189078*RIVER + 0.10331805*ln(SQU) + 0.99534932*ln(MKAD) + 5.2547275*Z1 + 3.5440688*Z2 + 2.0637135*Z3 + 1.2373478*Z4 + 0.67460416*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is ln(PRICE)
Included observations: 256 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
EL -0.005783 0.141197 -0.040955 0.9674
WAT 0.139166 0.127701 1.089785 0.2769
GAS 0.369019 0.167293 2.205818 0.0283
WC 0.208736 0.235547 0.886178 0.3764
TEL -0.060767 0.231723 -0.262240 0.7934
ROAD 0.052103 0.117192 0.444595 0.6570
FOREST -0.075337 0.118295 -0.636861 0.5248
RIVER -0.005519 0.123836 -0.044566 0.9645
Ln(SQU) 0.103318 0.103426 0.998960 0.3188
Ln(MKAD) 0.995349 0.061144 16.27887 0.0000
Z1 5.254728 0.301141 17.44938 0.0000
Z2 3.544069 0.200701 17.65841 0.0000
Z3 2.063713 0.156938 13.14985 0.0000
Z4 1.237348 0.160135 7.726916 0.0000
Z5 0.674604 0.214143 3.150251 0.0018
R-squared 0.476066 Mean dependent var 5.856869
Adjusted R-squared 0.445630 S.D. dependent var 1.080715
S.E. of regression 0.804657 Akaike info criterion -0.377870
Sum squared resid 156.0411 Schwarz criterion -0.170145
Log likelihood -299.8809 F-statistic 15.64154
Durbin-Watson stat 1.700676 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Ярославское направление
LN(PRICE) = 6.1436502 + 0.001955343*EL + 0.085133641*WAT + 0.44572002*GAS - 0.21492366*WC + 0.85278469*TEL + 0.14799338*ROAD - 0.10178491*FOREST - 0.013373748*RIVER - 0.19580008*LN(SQU) - 0.22451889*LN(MKAD) + 1.274168*Z1 + 1.58818*Z2 + 1.0262341*Z3 + 0.72269108*Z4 - 0.53163349*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 173 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 6.143650 0.735122 8.357322 0.0000
EL 0.001955 0.143042 0.013670 0.9891
WAT 0.085134 0.117218 0.726286 0.4687
GAS 0.445720 0.137652 3.238027 0.0015
WC -0.214924 0.415879 -0.516794 0.6060
TEL 0.852785 0.310867 2.743246 0.0068
ROAD 0.147993 0.121000 1.223087 0.2231
FOREST -0.101785 0.118445 -0.859345 0.3915
RIVER -0.013374 0.115716 -0.115574 0.9081
LN(SQU) -0.195800 0.115434 -1.696203 0.0918
LN(MKAD) -0.224519 0.147786 -1.519217 0.1307
Z1 1.274168 0.432226 2.947921 0.0037
Z2 1.588180 0.322526 4.924191 0.0000
Z3 1.026234 0.247162 4.152076 0.0001
Z4 0.722691 0.195322 3.699990 0.0003
Z5 -0.531633 0.687414 -0.773382 0.4405
R-squared 0.602023 Mean dependent var 6.099806
Adjusted R-squared 0.564000 S.D. dependent var 0.992992
S.E. of regression 0.655676 Akaike info criterion -0.756252
Sum squared resid 67.49603 Schwarz criterion -0.464618
Log likelihood -164.0606 F-statistic 15.83301
Durbin-Watson stat 2.245641 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Казанское направление
LN(PRICE) = 6.9040789 + 0.34526888*EL + 0.12405055*WAT + 0.18869291*GAS - 0.60746533*WC - 0.81654511*TEL - 0.036112493*ROAD - 0.090087358*FOREST + 0.16458687*RIVER + 0.39180948*LN(SQU) - 0.73456461*LN(MKAD) - 0.23197312*Z1 - 0.083669*Z2 - 0.64306212*Z3 + 0.14476455*Z4 - 0.2004949*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 118
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 6.904079 1.259503 5.481589 0.0000
EL 0.345269 0.202017 1.709111 0.0905
WAT 0.124051 0.161872 0.766347 0.4452
GAS 0.188693 0.201739 0.935332 0.3518
WC -0.607465 0.607755 -0.999523 0.3199
TEL -0.816545 0.474930 -1.719296 0.0886
ROAD -0.036112 0.180892 -0.199636 0.8422
FOREST -0.090087 0.177843 -0.506556 0.6136
RIVER 0.164587 0.174485 0.943272 0.3478
LN(SQU) 0.391809 0.169016 2.318177 0.0224
LN(MKAD) -0.734565 0.261145 -2.812861 0.0059
Z1 -0.231973 1.021114 -0.227177 0.8207
Z2 -0.083669 0.658563 -0.127048 0.8992
Z3 -0.643062 0.639217 -1.006016 0.3168
Z4 0.144765 0.348880 0.414941 0.6791
Z5 -0.200495 0.289912 -0.691573 0.4908
R-squared 0.513905 Mean dependent var 5.418579
Adjusted R-squared 0.442421 S.D. dependent var 1.041129
S.E. of regression 0.777424 Akaike info criterion -0.378064
Sum squared resid 61.64757 Schwarz criterion -0.002378
Log likelihood -129.1289 F-statistic 7.189038
Durbin-Watson stat 2.065796 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Киевское направление
LN(PRICE) = 6.2950012 + 0.00059839431*EL + 0.092929326*WAT + 0.4016492*GAS + 0.42332728*WC - 0.010431107*TEL - 0.10458877*ROAD + 0.014841448*FOREST - 0.25781806*RIVER + 0.23004302*LN(SQU) - 0.43769331*LN(MKAD) - 0.072444234*Z1 + 0.53095758*Z2 + 0.79909599*Z3 + 0.38701369*Z4 + 0.5933079*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 307 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 6.295001 0.479543 13.12709 0.0000
EL 0.000598 0.111878 0.005349 0.9957
WAT 0.092929 0.095806 0.969970 0.3329
GAS 0.401649 0.107840 3.724502 0.0002
WC 0.423327 0.297281 1.423996 0.1555
TEL -0.010431 0.731038 -0.014269 0.9886
ROAD -0.104589 0.095192 -1.098712 0.2728
FOREST 0.014841 0.097042 0.152939 0.8786
RIVER -0.257818 0.099483 -2.591569 0.0100
LN(SQU) 0.230043 0.096485 2.384240 0.0178
LN(MKAD) -0.437693 0.090877 -4.816322 0.0000
Z1 -0.072444 0.846314 -0.085600 0.9318
Z2 0.530958 0.335069 1.584622 0.1141
Z3 0.799096 0.275587 2.899614 0.0040
Z4 0.387014 0.245119 1.578881 0.1154
Z5 0.593308 0.394208 1.505062 0.1334
R-squared 0.483673 Mean dependent var 6.123477
Adjusted R-squared 0.457058 S.D. dependent var 0.966970
S.E. of regression 0.712508 Akaike info criterion -0.627219
Sum squared resid 147.7311 Schwarz criterion -0.432986
Log likelihood -323.3360 F-statistic 18.17308
Durbin-Watson stat 1.791071 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Курское направление
LN(PRICE) = 7.2035055 - 0.012993828*EL + 0.39150869*WAT + 0.26305989*GAS - 0.066238123*WC + 0.99157395*TEL + 0.088108908*ROAD - 0.11821644*FOREST + 0.21614314*RIVER - 0.13547526*LN(SQU) - 0.43318913*LN(MKAD) - 0.29316653*Z1 - 0.818894*Z2 - 0.077742065*Z3 - 0.10771119*Z4 - 0.035958122*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 141 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 7.203505 1.344009 5.359717 0.0000
EL -0.012994 0.181480 -0.071599 0.9430
WAT 0.391509 0.154472 2.534493 0.0125
GAS 0.263060 0.185494 1.418161 0.1586
WC -0.066238 0.884732 -0.074868 0.9404
TEL 0.991574 0.777281 1.275696 0.2044
ROAD 0.088109 0.145403 0.605965 0.5456
FOREST -0.118216 0.163708 -0.722116 0.4716
RIVER 0.216143 0.168270 1.284499 0.2013
LN(SQU) -0.135475 0.105938 -1.278820 0.2033
LN(MKAD) -0.433189 0.301055 -1.438903 0.1527
Z1 -0.293167 1.374322 -0.213317 0.8314
Z2 -0.818894 0.977020 -0.838155 0.4035
Z3 -0.077742 0.578606 -0.134361 0.8933
Z4 -0.107711 0.257339 -0.418558 0.6763
Z5 -0.035958 0.225253 -0.159635 0.8734
R-squared 0.240081 Mean dependent var 5.530674
Adjusted R-squared 0.148891 S.D. dependent var 0.820699
S.E. of regression 0.757140 Akaike info criterion -0.449909
Sum squared resid 71.65770 Schwarz criterion -0.115298
Log likelihood -152.3517 F-statistic 2.632748
Durbin-Watson stat 2.097965 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001743
Ленинградское направление
LN(PRICE) = 7.9350745 + 0.24943039*EL + 0.10896672*WAT + 0.078894578*GAS + 0.91195044*WC - 0.20434372*TEL - 0.079129206*ROAD + 0.051493538*FOREST + 0.029083264*RIVER - 0.042469369*LN(SQU) - 0.65334765*LN(MKAD) + 0.20942511*Z1 - 0.24685898*Z2 + 0.030572545*Z3 + 0.12351687*Z4 - 0.33871248*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 167 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 7.935074 0.801468 9.900680 0.0000
EL 0.249430 0.143234 1.741418 0.0836
WAT 0.108967 0.133612 0.815546 0.4160
GAS 0.078895 0.150746 0.523361 0.6015
WC 0.911950 0.364467 2.502146 0.0134
TEL -0.204344 0.429095 -0.476220 0.6346
ROAD -0.079129 0.117322 -0.674461 0.5010
FOREST 0.051494 0.119696 0.430202 0.6677
RIVER 0.029083 0.120607 0.241140 0.8098
LN(SQU) -0.042469 0.135182 -0.314165 0.7538
LN(MKAD) -0.653348 0.154423 -4.230895 0.0000
Z1 0.209425 0.695034 0.301316 0.7636
Z2 -0.246859 0.786942 -0.313694 0.7542
Z3 0.030573 0.246929 0.123811 0.9016
Z4 0.123517 0.219681 0.562256 0.5748
Z5 -0.338712 0.197757 -1.712769 0.0888
R-squared 0.437057 Mean dependent var 5.681078
Adjusted R-squared 0.381135 S.D. dependent var 0.855741
S.E. of regression 0.673194 Akaike info criterion -0.700540
Sum squared resid 68.43173 Schwarz criterion -0.401810
Log likelihood -162.4676 F-statistic 7.815542
Durbin-Watson stat 1.756217 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Горьковское направление
LN(PRICE) = 7.2976855 + 0.19738607*EL + 0.12203915*WAT + 0.16193317*GAS + 1.0622297*WC - 1.2649169*TEL + 0.010250859*ROAD + 0.1420379*FOREST - 0.00048040952*RIVER - 0.11438465*LN(SQU) - 0.54339161*LN(MKAD) - 2.4357748*Z1 + 0.09279889*Z2 + 0.4656004*Z3 + 0.15282546*Z4 + 0.0097173295*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 147 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 7.297685 1.225366 5.955517 0.0000
EL 0.197386 0.144176 1.369067 0.1733
WAT 0.122039 0.133528 0.913959 0.3624
GAS 0.161933 0.185189 0.874420 0.3835
WC 1.062230 1.105137 0.961175 0.3382
TEL -1.264917 0.718158 -1.761335 0.0805
ROAD 0.010251 0.144360 0.071009 0.9435
FOREST 0.142038 0.150984 0.940750 0.3486
RIVER -0.000480 0.148962 -0.003225 0.9974
LN(SQU) -0.114385 0.122861 -0.931008 0.3536
LN(MKAD) -0.543392 0.265516 -2.046553 0.0427
Z1 -2.435775 1.375588 -1.770715 0.0789
Z2 0.092799 0.991448 0.093599 0.9256
Z3 0.465600 0.526827 0.883783 0.3784
Z4 0.152825 0.338940 0.450892 0.6528
Z5 0.009717 0.219800 0.044210 0.9648
R-squared 0.467753 Mean dependent var 5.483975
Adjusted R-squared 0.406809 S.D. dependent var 0.909893
S.E. of regression 0.700790 Akaike info criterion -0.608643
Sum squared resid 64.33493 Schwarz criterion -0.283154
Log likelihood -147.8487 F-statistic 7.675095
Durbin-Watson stat 1.903338 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Павелецкое направление
LN(PRICE) = 6.6769836 + 0.10555016*EL + 0.040062897*WAT + 0.3035971*GAS + 0.14805449*WC + 0.57867799*TEL + 0.050667383*ROAD + 0.081297288*FOREST - 0.19807505*RIVER - 0.47775154*LN(SQU) - 0.18126861*LN(MKAD) - 0.010021124*Z1 + 0.79246309*Z2 + 0.57679141*Z3 + 0.56630294*Z4 + 0.55346155*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 157 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 6.676984 0.782536 8.532498 0.0000
EL 0.105550 0.132213 0.798335 0.4260
WAT 0.040063 0.119593 0.334994 0.7381
GAS 0.303597 0.147164 2.062979 0.0409
WC 0.148054 0.632404 0.234114 0.8152
TEL 0.578678 0.628164 0.921221 0.3585
ROAD 0.050667 0.124058 0.408418 0.6836
FOREST 0.081297 0.129352 0.628496 0.5307
RIVER -0.198075 0.134337 -1.474466 0.1426
LN(SQU) -0.477752 0.100443 -4.756428 0.0000
LN(MKAD) -0.181269 0.156166 -1.160743 0.2477
Z1 -0.010021 0.959986 -0.010439 0.9917
Z2 0.792463 0.494083 1.603908 0.1110
Z3 0.576791 0.335061 1.721453 0.0874
Z4 0.566303 0.238714 2.372305 0.0190
Z5 0.553462 0.202996 2.726472 0.0072
R-squared 0.521148 Mean dependent var 5.580578
Adjusted R-squared 0.470207 S.D. dependent var 0.834223
S.E. of regression 0.607205 Akaike info criterion -0.901442
Sum squared resid 51.98641 Schwarz criterion -0.589977
Log likelihood -136.0102 F-statistic 10.23029
Durbin-Watson stat 2.185368 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Рижское направление
LN(PRICE) = 6.8339143 + 0.27465918*EL + 0.10224976*WAT - 0.26982427*GAS + 1.3867012*WC - 0.12616538*TEL - 0.26368434*ROAD + 0.1530851*FOREST - 0.092635649*RIVER - 0.10487202*LN(SQU) - 0.44897652*LN(MKAD) + 1.2689782*Z1 + 0.78347813*Z2 + 0.56006737*Z3 + 0.34313609*Z4 + 0.42048733*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 258 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 6.833914 0.771995 8.852277 0.0000
EL 0.274659 0.113736 2.414876 0.0165
WAT 0.102250 0.101090 1.011470 0.3128
GAS -0.269824 0.123725 -2.180837 0.0302
WC 1.386701 0.272211 5.094223 0.0000
TEL -0.126165 0.247928 -0.508879 0.6113
ROAD -0.263684 0.097433 -2.706307 0.0073
FOREST 0.153085 0.104817 1.460500 0.1454
RIVER -0.092636 0.106792 -0.867442 0.3866
LN(SQU) -0.104872 0.103249 -1.015717 0.3108
LN(MKAD) -0.448977 0.158011 -2.841426 0.0049
Z1 1.268978 0.444861 2.852530 0.0047
Z2 0.783478 0.329689 2.376418 0.0183
Z3 0.560067 0.236274 2.370418 0.0186
Z4 0.343136 0.189914 1.806797 0.0720
Z5 0.420487 0.174265 2.412920 0.0166
R-squared 0.569089 Mean dependent var 5.586555
Adjusted R-squared 0.542380 S.D. dependent var 1.004311
S.E. of regression 0.679393 Akaike info criterion -0.713102
Sum squared resid 111.7011 Schwarz criterion -0.492764
Log likelihood -258.0959 F-statistic 21.30673
Durbin-Watson stat 1.764218 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Рязанское направление
LN(PRICE) = 7.1094811 + 0.16835579*EL + 0.36940587*WAT + 0.38951983*GAS + 0.025287291*WC - 0.43966663*TEL - 0.20887966*ROAD - 0.21255317*FOREST + 0.0072907488*RIVER - 0.34645315*LN(SQU) - 0.37529371*LN(MKAD) + 0.51058451*Z1 + 0.002210195*Z2 + 0.59625975*Z3 + 0.24562682*Z4 + 0.015898807*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 160 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 7.109481 1.387891 5.122507 0.0000
EL 0.168356 0.160979 1.045821 0.2974
WAT 0.369406 0.154677 2.388247 0.0182
GAS 0.389520 0.186274 2.091113 0.0383
WC 0.025287 0.409391 0.061768 0.9508
TEL -0.439667 0.725284 -0.606199 0.5453
ROAD -0.208880 0.146137 -1.429337 0.1551
FOREST -0.212553 0.140521 -1.512604 0.1326
RIVER 0.007291 0.142162 0.051285 0.9592
LN(SQU) -0.346453 0.130100 -2.662979 0.0086
LN(MKAD) -0.375294 0.278704 -1.346566 0.1802
Z1 0.510585 1.312182 0.389111 0.6978
Z2 0.002210 0.758709 0.002913 0.9977
Z3 0.596260 0.545427 1.093198 0.2761
Z4 0.245627 0.289006 0.849903 0.3968
Z5 0.015899 0.297245 0.053487 0.9574
R-squared 0.509948 Mean dependent var 5.404866
Adjusted R-squared 0.458900 S.D. dependent var 0.959028
S.E. of regression 0.705456 Akaike info criterion -0.603182
Sum squared resid 71.66426 Schwarz criterion -0.295664
Log likelihood -162.7756 F-statistic 9.989740
Durbin-Watson stat 2.056788 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Савеловское направление
LN(PRICE) = 0.15833477*EL + 0.1518384*WAT + 0.62200473*GAS + 0.67237521*WC - 0.0365604*TEL - 0.071777355*ROAD + 0.00014905636*FOREST + 0.29555889*RIVER - 0.25845502*LN(SQU) + 1.1255825*LN(MKAD) + 5.416356*Z1 + 3.2842564*Z2 + 2.2102678*Z3 + 1.4237438*Z4 + 1.2809989*Z5
LS // Dependent Variable is LN(PRICE)
Included observations: 167 after adjusting endpoints
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
EL 0.158335 0.181054 0.874516 0.3832
WAT 0.151838 0.179730 0.844816 0.3995
GAS 0.622005 0.244504 2.543941 0.0120
WC 0.672375 0.430167 1.563055 0.1201
TEL -0.036560 0.423142 -0.086402 0.9313
ROAD -0.071777 0.163640 -0.438631 0.6616
FOREST 0.000149 0.150200 0.000992 0.9992
RIVER 0.295559 0.143980 2.052774 0.0418
LN(SQU) -0.258455 0.097592 -2.648329 0.0089
LN(MKAD) 1.125582 0.066058 17.03921 0.0000
Z1 5.416356 0.345376 15.68250 0.0000
Z2 3.284256 0.199313 16.47792 0.0000
Z3 2.210268 0.346324 6.382084 0.0000
Z4 1.423744 0.209714 6.788987 0.0000
Z5 1.280999 0.263239 4.866294 0.0000
R-squared 0.350319 Mean dependent var 5.658380
Adjusted R-squared 0.290480 S.D. dependent var 1.055624
S.E. of regression 0.889184 Akaike info criterion -0.149375
Sum squared resid 120.1785 Schwarz criterion 0.130684
Log likelihood -209.4899 F-statistic 5.854357
Durbin-Watson stat 1.367878 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000